The 2022 Atlanta Braves joined a long list of teams over the past two decades who have failed to repeat as champions. For avid Braves fans such as myself (a native of Marietta, Georgia), this past season will be remembered by the arrival of rookie sensations Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider, a race with the New York Mets for the National League Eastern Division crown that came down to the final weekend of the regular season, and a disappointing first round exit at the hands of the ‘who-could’ve-seen-that-coming’ Philadelphia Phillies. A season defined by chaos and unpredictability that came to an abrupt and unceremonious finish may not seem like it would be remembered by many outside of Braves country. The 2022 campaign, however, very well could be looked upon as the year that kickstarted the newest dynasty in Major League Baseball. Admittedly, it’s odd to say that a year without a World Series trophy could be more crucial to the success of a franchise than a season that ended a 26-year championship drought. I am a believer that the postseason run of the 2021 Braves was driven by the same kind of Baseball God-given magic that we see taking over the city of Philadelphia today. Obviously, I would have loved to win another ring. Last year’s championship gave me the most authentic feeling of pure euphoria I have ever been fortunate enough to experience in my young life. For Braves fans, this past season was grounding to say the least, though I feel we have collectively learned a valuable lesson from our early exit in October: the only thing better than a World Series ring, in fact, is the next one.
The premier storyline off the field for the 2022 Braves was the flurry of contract extensions announced from General Manager Alex Anthopolous over the course of the season. AA agreed to extensions with four foundational pieces of his roster – all on team-friendly contracts that run through at least 2027. Following the release of each extension, the reaction from the baseball world was fairly consistent: “Why aren’t more teams doing this? Why are these players taking less money now? That is flat-out robbery!”. Well, in order to extend your young stars, you must have young stars worth extending. As much as Anthopolous deserves his praise, the recent success of the Braves should be attributed to the fact that they are currently one of the best-run organizations in baseball. From scouting and player development to fan experience and stadium operations, Atlanta is proving that an organization-wide effort combined with the right person at the helm is the best recipe for sustained success. While they seem to be firing on all cylinders now, there is one man who deserves credit for his influence on the current strategy implemented by Anthopolous and the Braves. Jon Hart, Braves President of Baseball Operations from 2014-2017, is regarded as the pioneer of this approach, and its effectiveness was proven over 30 years ago when Atlanta was competing for their first title with Hart’s talented Cleveland Indians squad in the mid-1990’s. Hart was promoted to GM of the Cleveland Indians in 1991 and made waves with a new management strategy that had never been seen before: extending players before they became arbitration-eligible and forgoing the remaining years on their rookie contracts. *(When players are between 3 and 6 years of MLB service time, they are allowed to negotiate their salary with team ownership for the upcoming season. If both sides are unable to agree to a number before the predetermined deadline, they will go to an arbitration hearing. There, an independent arbitrator will decide which side’s salary proposal will be upheld.) Hart led a struggling Cleveland team who played in a small market with an old and outdated stadium. He had seen what transpired in Pittsburgh, where star players Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla left the Pirates in free agency for richer offers from other teams after several successful years with the club (Bonds went to SF, Bonilla to the Mets). He took a gamble by avoiding salary arbitration and negotiating long-term deals with some of his young stars like Manny Ramirez, Charles Nagy, and Jim Thome. While Hart initially faced criticism for this approach, the Indians advanced to the World Series in both ’95 and ’97 and remained competitive for the next several years, proving that he was well ahead of his time. Hart attempted to recreate his approach when he arrived in Atlanta by extending five different young players in a three-week span in 2014, most notably the recently-departed Freddie Freeman. Although several of them would end up being trade pieces in the subsequent rebuild, Hart once again demonstrated to his fanbase that he wished to be competitive for years to come. As the present-day Braves try to replicate his success, I wanted to take a closer look at the details within their recent extensions and demonstrate why the ‘Hart Approach’ could prove to be more valuable than it ever has. Interestingly, the Braves began to commit to this strategy long after the departure of Hart and General Manager John Coppollela in 2017 due to international signing violations. Alex Anthopolous later took the reins in Atlanta and negotiated the first of his extensions at the onset of the 2019 season. *For simplified analysis of contract details, it will be assumed that all club options will be exercised for every player. Extension #1 On 4/2/19, the Braves and OF Ronald Acuña Jr. agreed to an 8-year $100M extension with two club options that would extend him through the 2028 season. At the time of signing, Acuña was not even a full season into his MLB career. Coming off the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year award, everyone within the industry felt that he could have waited to put up the MVP numbers that were expected from him before signing his first deal. The contract carries an Average Annual Value (AAV) of $12.5M, which is dirt-cheap for a star of his stature in the current MLB market. It is quite backloaded, however, as he will earn a salary of $17M for the final six years of the deal. In the 2019 campaign, Acuña went on to hit for 100 RBI and nearly secured the first 40 HR/40 steal season since 2006. Anthopolous likely would have cost himself tens of millions of dollars had he waited until the following offseason to finalize a deal. He wasn’t done yet. Extension #2 On 4/11/19, the Braves and 2B Ozzie Albies agreed to a 7-year $35M contract extension with two club options that would extend him through the 2027 season. Just nine days after locking down their most exciting prospect, Anthopolous cemented his second baseman of the future to an incredibly lopsided and team-friendly deal. Albies’s contributions on the field far outweighed the $5M AAV in his agreement, though his deal is also backloaded with salaries of $7M for the final five years of the contract. In 2019, he went on to lead the National League in hits and slashed .295/.352/.500 while earning his first Silver Slugger Award. Anthopolous again saved considerable money by being proactive in his negotiations, though Acuña and Albies certainly had their reasons for agreeing to an extension so early. Both players will be only 30 years old at the end of their respective deals, leaving them time to sign another contract while still in the athletic prime of their careers. Also, agreeing to deals so early gives players security in case they get injured, and both players have dealt with their share of health problems over the last two seasons. It was a win-win for both sides, as finalizing early contract extensions helps to foster a good faith relationship between ownership and players in the long run. If Albies and Acuña continue to produce and the Braves continue to win throughout the duration of their deals, there should be no reason why both sides would be unable to reach another agreement before they hit free agency. Following another early postseason exit in the 2019 NLDS to the St. Louis Cardinals and the COVID-shortened 2020 season (which in my mind, never happened), the Braves came into the 2021 season with high expectations. After underperforming through the All-Star break and losing their best player to a torn ACL, many expected Atlanta to wave the white flag and start looking ahead to the ’22 season. Instead, Alex Anthopolous made a flurry of acquisitions at the trade deadline that completely rebuilt his outfield and ultimately propelled the Braves to their fourth consecutive NL East title. They went on to defeat the defending champion Dodgers and the AL Champion Astros to win their first World Series title since 1995. After the celebration died down, the attention turned to first baseman Freddie Freeman. The long-tenured franchise cornerstone who had finally won himself a championship was a free agent, and there was question as to whether or not he would ever put on a Braves uniform again. Spoiler alert: he didn’t. Four days after the end of the 99-day MLB lockout, Anthopolous made a heartbreaking splash on the trade market by acquiring first baseman Matt Olson from the Oakland Athletics. With Anthopolous and Freeman’s representation unable to agree to a new deal and the season quickly approaching, he boldly traded away four highly-ranked prospects and proceeded to sign Olson to the first of four extensions in 2022. Extension #3 On 3/15/22, the Braves and 1B Matt Olson agreed to an 8-year $168M contract extension with a club option that would extend him through the 2030 season. Not even 24 hours after acquiring him, AA secured his first baseman on a team-friendly deal that runs through the remainder of the decade. Olson, a Georgia native, is three years younger than Freeman, and his $21M AAV will be a bargain should he keep progressing as the club expects. Freeman went on to sign a lucrative six-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers that carries an AAV of $27M and runs through his age 38 season. While there were certainly mixed feelings about the addition of Olson amid the pain of seeing Freeman repping Dodger blue, he was a younger, cheaper, and more powerful version of Freeman who, most importantly, seemed like he genuinely wanted to be in Atlanta. He proceeded to hit 34 HR and 100+ RBI while playing a stellar first base in his first year with the team, and his preseason extension would foreshadow three breakout performances that kept the Braves afloat throughout the grueling 2022 campaign. The Braves would not have been able to stay competitive with the New York Mets throughout the year if not for the emergence of a few key pieces of their roster. Three difference-making players helped lead Atlanta to a .706 winning percentage from the start of June through the end of the year, each of them earning extensions in the process. The first, and probably least surprising, was Austin Riley. Extension #4 On 8/1/22, the Braves and 3B Austin Riley agreed to a 10-year $212M contract extension with a club option that would extend him through the 2033 season. After a rocky start to the year, Riley began terrorizing pitchers across the league. He earned his first All Star nod and hit .423 in July, earning him ‘Player of the Month’ honors and the richest contract ever offered by the Braves franchise. It is hard to believe that a team who shelled out almost a quarter of a billion dollars to a single player would be getting a bang for their buck, but the $21.2M AAV on Riley’s deal could prove to be a steal if he continues to produce the way he has the past two seasons. This deal was lauded by Braves fans, as they believe they finally found a long-term replacement at the hot corner that was once filled by the legendary Chipper Jones. Riley, still only 25 years old, plays a solid third base and has shown improvement in each of his three full MLB seasons. Riley was in the MVP conversation for the better part of the year before cooling down late in the regular season, though the Braves managed to find significant production from other parts of their lineup. Michael Harris II burst onto the scene at the end of May and proceeded to dominate on both sides of the ball. AA wasted no time in locking him down. Extension #5 On 8/17/22, the Braves and OF Michael Harris II agreed to an 8-year $72M contract extension with two club options that would extend him through the 2032 season. A third round pick in 2019, Harris had never played above Double-A ball before being called up to the majors on May 28th. The Braves were 22-25 at the time of his debut, and he immediately took over a center field position that was in desperate need of an upgrade. His deal is also backloaded, earning salaries of $10M+ over the final five years and giving the team more flexibility to sign talent to their current roster. In 114 games, Harris slashed .297/.339/.514 while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense, essentially securing the NL Rookie of the Year Award long before the season ended. In most years, he would have run away with the award after putting up those kinds of numbers. His own teammate, however, would make sure he had his work cut out for him. Spencer Strider also made his debut in 2022. Extension #6 On 10/10/22, the Braves and RHP Spencer Strider agreed to a 6-year $75M contract extension with a club option that would extend him through the 2029 season. Strider was a 4th round pick out of Clemson in the shortened 2020 MLB Draft and made his debut out of the bullpen late in 2021. He began the year as a reliever but quickly worked his way into a starting role with his electric fastball and wipeout slider. “The Quadfather” made hitters look silly all season, piling up strikeouts in deGrom-like fashion while beating Randy Johnson’s record as the fastest pitcher ever to reach 200 K’s. He signed his extension days before the divisional series with Philadelphia after a stellar season in which he produced a 2.67 ERA with a WHIP below 1 and a K/9 of nearly 14 (!!). His contract also happens to be quite backloaded, with salaries of $20M+ for the last four seasons. Both he and Harris will be 31 years old when their deals run out, so they could be in line for another big payday should they continue to produce over the next several years. There we have it. Six extensions worth well over half a billion dollars handed out by Alex Anthopolous over the last three seasons. Two outfielders, 75% of his infield and an electric starting pitcher all under contract for the next five years at a minimum – almost all of whom are homegrown talent. The Braves certainly still have remaining needs: Dansby Swanson is currently a free agent and Max Fried is set to become the same after next season. Atlanta has never spent past the luxury tax threshold, but coming off a World Series championship and record-setting season in attendance, Chairman Terry McGuirk has said he plans on having a top-5 payroll in the league. Regardless of ownership’s plans, Anthopolous has ensured that the Braves will remain competitive for years to come. In reality, the team has won only a single ring, and they will likely have to win a couple more over the next decade to prove the effectiveness of the rejuvenated “Hart-thopolous Approach”. That being said, Atlanta has the foundation to get it done. And if they do, teams will look back to the 2022 season as the year that kickstarted the Braves Dynasty of the 2020s. Written by Evan Crow
1 Comment
Shane McLaughlin
11/2/2022 04:22:25 pm
Very insightful article, thank you Evan!
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