By Wyatt Sherman, coming into the 2022 season, the Orioles were ranked last in practically everybody’s preseason rankings. According to Fangraphs, they came into the season with the second lowest payroll as they paid 63 million dollars to their players with only 31.3 percent of that counting towards guaranteed money. Adding insult to injury, they play in what many claim to be the hardest division in the league with many perennial playoff contenders such as the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, and Boston Red Sox. Thus, the Orioles were yet again poised to remain in last place, but they defied projections with assistance from the promotion of young talent and some breakout seasons from returning players as they finished with a surprising 83-79 record which was just four games out of reach of the final wildcard spot. Amazingly, they did this despite losing two months of catching phenom Adley Rutschman, undisputed ace John Means to season ending Tommy John surgery, and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez to season ending surgery. On top of that, they traded away their all-star closer Jorge Lopez and face of the franchise Trey Mancini in the middle of the season. Nevertheless, the team outperformed all projections and put the team in prime position to spend big during the upcoming offseason. With only 21 million in committed payroll for 2023, how will this star-studded off-season fair for the free to spend Orioles? Where Should They Look to Improve In the 2022 season, the Orioles had a combined Wins Above Replacement/(WAR) of 35.7 and were ranked 19th in the major leagues. Combined WAR adds both WARs from the batters and pitchers. The Orioles total offensive WAR added to a total of 26.3 and ranked thirteenth in the major leagues. This is a great spot to be for a team whose best offensive players are still on rookie or pre-arbitration deals. Therefore, in my opinion the team should first focus heavily on starting pitching. In 2022, the Orioles finished with a pitching WAR of 9.4 and were ranked 27th which is fine considering the previously mentioned John Means and Grayson Rodriguez will be returning to the team, but this still leaves the Orioles, who relied heavily on below average pitchers to have breakout seasons, with gaps to fill. Take Dean Kremer who’s projected 2023 earned run average (ERA) differs by an entire 1.28 runs or Tyler Wells whose projected ERA does not have as big a gap, but still is a rather poor 4.80. My opinion would be to move Wells to the bullpen where he began his career. This would leave the rotation at: Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, and a free agent. The bullpen would feature: Cionel Perez, DL Hall, Tyler Wells, Felix Bautista, Dillon Tate, Bryan Baker, and a rotating door of Keegan Akin, Logan Gillaspie, Joey Krehbiel, Nick Vespi, and a variety of prospects. For any offensive additions I think because of the caliber of this year’s class that the Orioles should be big spenders or not bother. I think that because of the upcoming offensive talent in the minors as well as the increased experience for their current young talent they are in good shape to leave the offense as it is. If they were to make any improvements a top tier shortstop and a power lefty designated hitter type player would be perfect additions. I would suggest Joc Pederson, who would have led the team in OPS, WRC+, and SLG, last season but he received and is expected to accept the 19.65-million-dollar qualifying offer. Therefore, I would focus my attention heavily on elite shortstop and starting pitcher. Who Should They Target? I am going to start with the starting pitcher because I think this is the do or die position for this team to make a playoff push next season. Although all free agents will demand a different price, the Orioles, as I mentioned before, have a mere 21 million dollars towards the 2023 season so far. For context, the average 2023 committed payroll of the other 29 franchises is 124.9 million dollars which is nearly six times as much as the Orioles. In my research, I found that one of the best statistics to measure next seasons success is xFIP which is a fantastic indicator of how a pitcher actually performed in the season. Out of the plethora of free agent options, I decided to compile my top nine starters in the spreadsheet below that I think could fit the Orioles off-season plans. Based off this list, it would make the most sense to start with Carlos Rodon or Chris Bassitt. The reason being is because of their similarity in innings to former Oriole Jordan Lyles who is on this list. Not only do both Rodon and Bassitt have similar innings, but they also both have two of the lowest projected 2023 ERAs. I think offering Bassitt a three-year 75-million-dollar deal would be sufficient while Rodon would fetch roughly a four-year 116-million-dollar deal. If those two options go elsewhere, Jameson Taillon is clearly the next best if not final option for the Orioles. I would project Taillon to be offered at least a three-year 45-million-dollar deal. The Orioles can spend on other free agent starters, but after hearing general manager, Mike Elias, say they would be spenders, I feel confident that these three I listed are where their primary focus should be. For the elite level shortstop, they have less, but more impactful players. Although current shortstop Jorge Mateo has elite defense and speed, his offense was lackluster as his season-end OBP and SLG percentages were .267 and .379 respectively. All in all, Mateo is a fantastic bench player as his pinch running and defensive replacement ability are practically second to none. However, his offense frequently holds the team back from optimizing their run scoring ability. Luckily, four current free agent shortstops not only display elite defense, but also have superb offensive abilities. For this chart, which is shown below, I used their current UZR/150, and RAR as well as their projected 2023 WAR, and OPS. Based on these findings, I think the Orioles should heavily consider signing Carlos Correa or Dansby Swanson. I know you must be thinking “but Bogaerts has the higher UZR/150” and you are correct, but I think it is increasingly likely he will not sign with a division rival unless an extreme overpay occurs. As for Turner, his defensive value defeats the reason for signing a shortstop because he would just improve offensive metrics, but steeply decline the defensive metrics. Therefore, Carlos Correa should be the first name to be discussed. When in Houston, Mike Elias is credited for drafting Correa, so they already have an established connection. In addition, last year multiple reporters claimed the Orioles offered him a 300 million ten-year deal which is around what he should get this off-season. I think signing Correa to a front-loaded eight-year 260-million-dollar deal would do wonders for Baltimore in the future and present. If that falls through, the Orioles should offer Swanson a front-loaded eight-year deal worth 192-million-dollars.
Conclusion As I wrote this article, I became increasingly happy that the Orioles are finally in a position to spend big during the off-season. I think an ideal off-season for the Orioles would be Carlos Rodon and Dansby Swanson on the deals I mentioned before or Carlos Correa and Jameson Taillon. If they signed Rodon and Swanson, that would bring their committed 2023 payroll to 71 million or they could sign Carlos Correa and Taillon and bring it to 68.5 million. In short, the Orioles essentially have the availability to do whatever they please this off-season and the city of Baltimore will shortly be celebrating a winning baseball team instead of moping about a subpar one.
1 Comment
dustin
11/14/2022 07:08:49 pm
Surprised you didn't mention Austin Voth in the pitching, lowest ERA of all our starters this year. Great option for another starter, or great long reliever.
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